Archive for September, 2016

UK energy markets spiked in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, mainly due to the weakness of the pound making fossil fuel imports more expensive. They’ve since fallen back a little though remain up from their Jan-April 2016 lows.

In the next few years a number of issues will impact the price paid on your next energy contracts:

  • Informal discussions between Opec and non-Opec countries may result in some kind of agreement to cut back oil production (many leading producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are suffering from the current low price), which would increase the oil price from its current US$45-50 level, and could in turn would push up gas and electricity prices
  • Exchange rate: if the pound continues to strengthen against the dollar and Euro those increases may be negated, but with the exact nature of Brexit still to be confirmed there remains a significant level of currency uncertainty and risk
  • In the longer-term the market sees wholesale electricity costs falling on the back of reduced demand (due to efficiency improvements) and a greater contribution from renewables
  • However, this possible easing will likely be countered by increases in non-energy chargestransmission, distribution and government charges/taxes (including those subsidising renewables)

Despite recent market fluctuations it remains a good time to be looking at longer term contracts, taking advantage of the relative market lows while minimising the risk from price spikes.

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The implementation of Ofgem regulation P272 from April 2017 means that around 155,000 electricity supply points will move to half-hourly billing from next April (if not before).

The new ruling affects supply points with Meter Point Administration Number (MPAN) profile classes beginning 05, 06, 07 or 08 (the first 2 digits of the 22-digit supply identification MPAN). Those beginning with 00, 01, 02, 03 and 04 will see no change.

While the intention is to offer these businesses cheaper off-peak electricity and therefore incentivise them to cut consumption at peak periods, it could lead to higher costs for those which have little choice on when they use power (eg schools).

In the short-term those renewing supply contracts for 05-08 supplies should prepare for and understand the changes…

  1. Suppliers are taking different approaches to the change, with some transferring supplies to half-hourly rates within 45 days of a new contract starting, while others are waiting until nearer April 2017. As P272 means new charges apply to your supply it’s important to understand the approach being taken by your supplier.
  2. Supplies renewing in the next few months should receive a non-half hourly (as before) offer, along with a half-hourly price, which means you should be able to compare the change in overall cost.
  3. The principle new cost you’ll see is a capacity charge, which is the maximum electricity you can draw from the grid at any one moment, determined by the local Distribution Network Operator (DNO). The capacity level should reflect your actual demand so needs to be monitored to ensure you’re not paying for something you’re not using.
  4. Half-Hourly supplies also incur Meter Operating (MOP) and Data Collector/Aggregator (DC/DC) charges: the MOP covers the installation and maintenance of the meter, while the DC/DA pays for the collection of meter data and passing it to the supplier. These charges can vary widely, particularly if you’re put onto default contracts, so do shop around for the best options.

Do get in touch to find out more about how P272 could impact your organisation.